Semi final result

It seems pretty clear now that Old Baloney is getting huge votes and these have carried him through to the final, possibly to win the whole thing. This is regardless of the judges, including Gary Barlow, who, if the truth be told would probably much have preferred any one of his other acts in the Overs category, indeed in any category with the possible exception of Rylan, rejecting him after Bootcamp.

None of them really regarded him as having any X factor. He came across as an ugly bloke who was a nervous wreck with a good voice at his first audition. The bright red face, tears and dumb nature had some kind of tv appeal, though, and through he went. His history of cruise liner singing and nerve-free performances elsewhere were well hidden and some distinctly average and often quite dreadful performances of old songs of a certain type must have won over an awful lot of viewers week after week after week. Who could be voting in such numbers? These people have not just voted for Old Baloney but have made a decision that they prefer him to James Arthur, UnionJ and Jahmene Douglas.

There could be some clear distinction between the UnionJ audience and James Arthur's, each maybe not appealing to the older, more staid, less chart-minded viewers. It would have been Jahmene, though, not Baloney, that I would have expected to have the support of the old people and even some younger ones who like the gospel link. So I am at a loss to know how Baloney has topped the poll and has made it through. The bookies have consistently had him at short odds to go and if he had once finished in the bottom two that would have been him gone, Gary being the only one who would vote for him. Seriously, think about that: the judges would have had him out whoever he had been up against from week one. But some massive group of voters ensured that never happened. The fact that there exists such a group means the death of a good programme. I have been a big fan, totally addicted to X Factor and all its previous incarnations like Pop Idol and Fame Academy. They have been highly criticised as being cheesey and, yes, they have been but they have brought us acts who have gone on to chart success and, in a few cases, in America too. 

Yes, each year has annoying or incompetent acts or both. But they don't win these days. Steve Brookstein won, Andy Abrahams nearly won, Leon Jackson did but the last few years have had no-one like Baloney survive and look like winning. My guess is that other programmes have taken away a significant chunk of the 'modern-thinking', music-savvy viewers and, in particular, the teen viewers who were avid voters too. That has left the Coronation Street crowd, the grannies, cruise ship and Labour Club people who must now be in the majority by a big margin. I used to write for people who loved today's music, knew something about performing or were crazy fans of groups or boys or girls on the stage. I fear that I am now writing for Daily Express and Mirror readers who prefer a bloke from Liverpool who can stand up and sing a bit just because he's a bloke from Liverpool who can stand up and sing a bit and who says 'You know' a lot and talks about 'me nan' incessantly. They like underdogs that that we want to get rid of purely because we want to get rid of them.

On that basis, I have to conclude that Old Baloney will win. The only hope left is that the gospel supporters get behind Jahmene big time and split the dreary balladeers. That might allow James through to take the crown that has been rightfully either his or Ella's since day one.

Jahmene is a decent chap and almost too innocent for this business. I am not that impressed, though, with his singing which seems limited to one style of high wailing and wobbling around notes. I can so imagine him in the church choir, belting out the God songs. Maybe someone will write him some good tracks and he'll make a few top tens next year but he's not going to be around in the big time for long. You won't see him on the X Factor USA stage which even Cher Lloyd reached recently. He'll have a nice Christmas album this year and next too but that will be that.

James Arthur is the only remaining artist that we'd be proud to see representing X Factor UK. He writes his own stuff and will be open to collaborative efforts with plenty of others who will be keen to work with him. People will genuinely want to play and listen to his albums and, whilst even he will not be a massive act after his first year, he will be around for a while and will benefit from winning.

UnionJ were good but not that good. With support from Louis, I can see them getting a good contract, bags of promotion and they'll be the act that we see popping up everywhere over the year. If they're lucky and get some good writers too, then they may break through big time and get the teens screaming at a concert or two as well. They should have been in the final but not enough people who think that either watch the show now or bothered to vote.

If the working class grannies remain this show's driving audience next year then I shall not be writing about it. Hopefully, Simon will make some significant changes and, in particular, get ITV to schedule it better. BBC have well and truly stuffed them in the ratings this year. And many decent acts in the process.

Thank heavens for X Factor USA which is looking really good - in a totally different class, both as a programme, in its currency, its judges (well most of them) and in its contestants, any of the Top 8 likely to match whoever wins the UK show in terms of longevity and likely impact on the market and charts.