For the first time this series the bookies got it right last week. This week they have Rylan as such a clear favourite to go I struggle to write that I disagree. Of the £10,600 bets placed with Betfair at the time of writing this afternoon, a massive £7000, nearly 70% has been on Rylan. On Old Baloney going there is almost the entire balance, 27% with next to nothing placed on any of Union J, James, Ella or Jahmene. In fact the bets on Jahmene going total just £30, a miniscule 0.3%.
But I am going to disagree and here's why. Regular readers will know that I have wanted Christopher Maloney gone since he got through to Bootcamp. And you do have to wonder about the sanity of the judges who selected those Overs to go through to Judges' Houses. Gary made some odd choices too but he didn't have the best six to choose from.
Anyway, here's how I think things might work out. Assuming there is a bottom two for the judges to choose from, there are only a few feasible pairings. Rylan v Christopher has to be the most likely so let's deal with that one. Gary will save Christopher. Nicole will save Rylan so it's down to Tulisa and Louis. Now both have made it pretty damn clear that they don't see Christopher as an act they want to see continuing and must surely vote for him to go. Christopher's only chance of survival in that pairing would be if one of them did support him and take it to deadlock when he may have the higher public vote.
In any other pairing that involved Christopher then there's no way the other three judges would send Union J, Jahmene, James or Ella home. Indeed, even Gary would have trouble justifying retaining Christopher against any of them.
There is, of course, the awful scenario in which he is still not in the bottom two. Let's be quite clear what that means: it means he is more popular than at least one of Union J, Jahmene, James or Ella. I really refuse to believe that there are that many annoying voters who prefer him over Jahmene, James or Ella. That leaves Union J, who we know he has already beaten at least once. So that puts Union J and, presumably Rylan in the bottom two. That's what the big money must be assuming: someone other than Maloney up against Rylan and hence the Rylan exit in week 7 (indeed - as his psychic friend predicted!)
Remember, though, that Rylan has been getting decent votes of late with the public genuinely warming to him. If he was going to go then it would have been after last week's pretty lame performance. If he does a reasonable job and does actually escape the bottom two then that would mean Christopher would have to have beaten two of the others in the polling. Now, if that happens it would be a ridiculous Ella v James, Jahmene v Union J or similar bottom 2. Cue protests, frustrated judges' remarks etc.
Any scenario that has Old Baloney remaining in this competition implies that it hasn't just been a particularly good performance by him in a week when the others do badly but that some old grannies out there believe he is a better singer / performer / potential British chart act than the rest.
We could be in Steve Brookstein, Andy Abraham, Leon Jackson land, folks. God (i.e. Simon) help us.
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